The 95/5 Rule
The 95/5 Rule
popularized by Jason Barnard since 2024.
Factual definition
The 95/5 Rule, published by Professor John Dawes at the Ehrenberg-Bass Institute in 2021, is the marketing principle that only about 5% of any addressable buyer category is in-market at any given moment, while 95% will trigger into market at some future point.
Jason Barnard definition of The 95/5 Rule
Professor John Dawes at the Ehrenberg-Bass Institute formalised the 95/5 Rule in 2021 as the structural counter to performance-marketing orthodoxy: at any moment, only 5% of an addressable audience is actively in-market, while 95% is not yet ready but will be at some future trigger point. Jason Barnard extends the rule into AI optimisation. Traditional marketing fights for fragile human memory to stay top of mind across the 95% over time. The new imperative is earning position in durable algorithmic memory, so when anyone from the 95% triggers into market and asks AI for guidance, the brand is the recommended solution. Top of Mind, in the algorithmic era, is Top of Algorithmic Mind. The principle belongs to Dawes; the AI-era application belongs to Barnard.
How Jason Barnard uses The 95/5 Rule
The 95/5 Rule exposes the futility of traditional top of mind strategies. The gatekeeper to the 95% is no longer human memory - it is algorithmic memory. When a trigger moment arrives (new project, system failure, budget allocation), buyers do not recall marketing messages. They ask AI.
Why Jason Barnard perspective on The 95/5 Rule matters
For decades, marketers fought to stay top of mind through interruption: LinkedIn spam, email sequences, remarketing ads. The 95/5 Rule reveals this as fools gold - statistically improbable to reach the right person at exactly the right moment. AI changes everything.
ASCII Diagram
The 95/5 Rule was coined by Prof. John Dawes at the Ehrenberg-Bass Institute in 2021. Jason Barnard popularised the rule as the structural reason brands must earn algorithmic memory rather than fight for human memory in the AI era.
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐ │ THE 95/5 RULE │ │ Only 5% Are Ready to Buy Today — Win the Other 95% via AI │ │ Popularized by Jason Barnard, 2024 │ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘ ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐ │ THE FUNDAMENTAL REALITY │ ├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤ │ │ │ ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐ │ │ │ │ │ │ │ YOUR IDEAL AUDIENCE │ │ │ │ │ │ │ │ ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐ │ │ │ │ │ │ │ │ │ │ │ ████████████████████████████████████████████████ 95% │ │ │ │ │ │ NOT in-market today │ │ │ │ │ │ (but WILL be at some future trigger point) │ │ │ │ │ │ │ │ │ │ │ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘ │ │ │ │ │ │ │ │ ┌────┐ 5% Ready to buy TODAY │ │ │ │ │████│ │ │ │ │ └────┘ │ │ │ │ │ │ │ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘ │ │ │ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘ ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐ │ OLD vs NEW APPROACH │ ├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤ │ │ │ TRADITIONAL: Fight for HUMAN MEMORY │ │ ══════════════════════════════════ │ │ │ │ ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐ │ │ │ │ │ │ │ LinkedIn spam ──┐ │ │ │ │ Email sequences ├──► Stay "top of mind" ──► FRAGILE │ │ │ │ Remarketing ads ┘ Human memory fades │ │ │ │ │ │ │ │ PROBLEM: Statistically improbable to reach the RIGHT person │ │ │ │ at EXACTLY the right moment. │ │ │ │ │ │ │ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘ │ │ │ │ NEW IMPERATIVE: Earn position in ALGORITHMIC MEMORY │ │ ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════ │ │ │ │ ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐ │ │ │ │ │ │ │ Train AI ──► Position in ──► DURABLE │ │ │ │ platforms algorithmic AI never forgets │ │ │ │ memory │ │ │ │ │ │ │ │ SOLUTION: When ANYONE from the 95% triggers into market │ │ │ │ and asks AI for guidance, YOU are recommended. │ │ │ │ │ │ │ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘ │ │ │ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘ ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐ │ THE TRIGGER MOMENT │ ├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤ │ │ │ ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐ │ │ │ │ │ │ │ 95% NOT IN MARKET TRIGGER EVENT │ │ │ │ │ │ │ │ │ │ │ ┌───────────────────────┐ │ │ │ │ │ │ │ • New project │ │ │ │ │ │ ├───►│ • System failure │◄─────────┤ │ │ │ │ │ │ • Budget allocation │ │ │ │ │ │ │ │ • Role change │ │ │ │ │ │ │ └───────────────────────┘ │ │ │ │ │ │ │ │ │ │ │ │ │ ▼ │ │ │ │ │ │ ┌───────────────────────┐ │ │ │ │ │ │ │ "Hey AI, what │ │ │ │ │ │ │ │ should I use │ │ │ │ │ │ │ │ for [problem]?" │ │ │ │ │ │ │ └───────────────────────┘ │ │ │ │ │ │ │ │ │ │ │ │ │ ▼ │ │ │ │ │ │ ┌───────────────────────┐ │ │ │ │ │ │ │ AI RECOMMENDS: │ │ │ │ │ │ │ │ ► Your brand (if │ │ │ │ │ │ │ │ trained) │ │ │ │ │ │ │ │ ► Competitor (if │ │ │ │ │ │ │ │ not trained) │ │ │ │ │ │ │ └───────────────────────┘ │ │ │ │ │ │ │ │ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘ │ │ │ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘ ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐ │ KEY INSIGHT │ ├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤ │ │ │ The gatekeeper to the 95% is NO LONGER human memory. │ │ It is ALGORITHMIC memory. │ │ │ │ When a trigger moment arrives, buyers do not recall marketing messages. │ │ THEY ASK AI. │ │ │ │ QUESTION: Is AI trained to recommend YOU at that moment? │ │ │ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
Synonyms
95-5 Rule
The 95 Percent
95/5
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